German government efforts to support the economy through record borrowing may aggravate a shortage of funding for the private sector which threatens to crimp investment, accelerate job losses and stifle a recovery.
German industry associations say banks’ reluctance to lend is putting firms under increasing pressure to find alternative sources of funding — at a time when governments are sucking up more and more of the money available on capital markets.
Yet the more companies have suffered in the downturn, the more the state has had to borrow to help them out.
“It’s a vicious circle — it’s like a dog biting itself on the tail,” said Volker Treier, chief economist of Germany’s chamber of industry and commerce (DIHK).
Germany and other European states are selling record levels of debt to help shore up their economies, prompting the Bank for International Settlements to warn this spring that sovereign issuers alone face increasing competition for investors.
Treier said there was no definitive evidence yet that firms have been crowded out of capital markets by the government, which is battling an expected economic contraction of 6 percent in 2009. But there were signs it could be happening, he said.
For the first time, DIHK surveys of German industry showed that financing conditions for bigger firms — those most likely to seek funds on capital markets — were deteriorating more rapidly than those for smaller firms, Treier said.
Yet this in turn could have a knock-on effect for borrowers who cannot turn to capital markets for funding.
The European Central Bank has pumped billions of euros into markets to encourage bank lending, but it hasn’t solved the problem, said Mario Ohoven, president of the BVMW association of small- and medium-sized businesses, known as the Mittelstand.
“The situation has got worse,” Ohoven told Reuters. “We know from our members…that more than 40 percent of Mittelstand firms are reporting tougher access to credit.”
According to the Bundesbank, the volume of loans issued by banks to non-banks fell during four of the past five months up to March, the most recent period for which data is available.
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